As you may or may not have heard, FIDESZ just lost its 2/3 majority in Parliament, thanks to the by-election that was held in Veszprem, a smallish city a bit North of Lake Balaton. The election was called because Tibor Navracsics, the local MP and FIDESZ veteran left to live the glamorous life of an MEP, leaving his seat empty. In the end, the election went to the independent Zoltan Kesz, a former teacher of the English language and one-time FIDESZ member, whose candidacy was supported by the Grand Coalition (MSZP/DK/Egyutt/MoMa/Liberals).
Veszprem was known to be e FIDESZ stronghold (most rural cities, or cities, or rural communities are. Or most other communities, for that matter, if we look at the recent national election results), and this loss is seen as a watershed event. I doubt it, but I tend to doubt things. The Grand Coalition spending half their time celebrating their grand victory (in an election where the candidate made sure not to appear anywhere near the pathetic losers supporting him. A wise decision) and fighting LMP. The latter is always amusing to watch, who doesn’t like mud-wrestling midgets? The last claim was that the LMP head was seen in a restaurant with FIDESZ campaign staff, to which the accused replied along the lines of “No, that restaurant was just cheap and I saw no FIDESZ there and I will sue every last one of youse trolls”. Measured words from a great statesman. LMP is often accused of being a FIDESZ satellite. Even if that is true, I kinda find it weird to concentrate such energies on the equivalent of Sputnik 1, a tiny little machine whose sole activity is to ping from now and again, while an Imperial-Class Star Destroyer is orbiting the planet. Well, at least one cannot blame the Grand Coalition for punching above their weight.
Talking about weight, here is why i doubt that this is, yet again a first nail in FIDESZ government’s coffin, a “sign that Hungary does not tolerate a one-party system” or any of the other triumphant slogans that were trumpeted all over the opposition media. Everyone knows that the government is unpopular. In the 2014 elections, they received 44.54% of the votes of 61.73% of the eligible population. The super-majority was due to some creative electoral legislation and especially due to a complete no-show from the opposition. This is why I am not enthusiastic. Barring a miracle (I mean barring the doors of the parliament and setting the whole thing on fire), FIDESZ will be in power for a good few years now. They have already settled in and passed all the legislation that required a super-majority. They just won’t feel the need to pass any legislation that would require the majority that they lost yesterday. It’s not that they will be writing an even more retrograde constitution anytime soon, not that it is possible unless they just want to adopt the Bible as the fundamental law of the land. Oh shit… I should not give them ideas, these morons might actually do such a thing… Forget what I just wrote. Please.
What does this mean for the fall of the Orban Regime? Give me a break. The opposition is even more hopeless than a year ago. They are completely incapable of gaining any media attention, and failed at even attempting to capitalise on the numerous scandals the government got itself into. Their voices are simply inaudible. And this will not change with overhauls like what DK did recently, unveiling a cbeebies-esque new image, by a guitar-playing and ever more irrelevant Gyurcsany. No-one is going to buy this shit. No-one.
Yes, FIDESZ might lose the next election. What then? The more and more likely Nazi government would not be an improvement (well, the quick depopulation would make the country a perfect place for a grand-scale Pleistocene rewilding project, which would be cooler than cool) and the Grand Coalition couldn’t even beat the Jewish Transgender Cartoonists for Pig Farmers in an Islamic State general election.
The first nail in the government’s coffin will be the emergence of a new opposition force, which will need to be opposed to not only FIDESZ, but all the other current players. Until this happens, I’ll keep my party hats and fireworks in storage.
But I’ve must have said this a lot.